SC Freiburg 3-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Europa-Park Stadion plays host to SC Freiburg versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg at Europa-Park Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 1D 8L from 9 games (0.11 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. SC Freiburg's 1.90 PPG return is 1.79 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.11 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 56% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 44% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.60 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.021 / defence 0.872 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.782 / defence 1.492. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.227. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.492 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 SC Freiburg games / 9 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 74% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12.50. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (74%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 74% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 54% | xG SC Freiburg 2.60 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.021 / def 0.872 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.782 / def 1.492 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.84
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SC Freiburg 3 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 74% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 8% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-1D-8L in 9 | 0.11 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.60. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.78x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
74%
1.36
18%
5.42
8%
12.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.44
0.84
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
12.50
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
7%
13.52
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
1%
168.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.84 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 5W 4D 0L from 9 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 8L across 9 games — 0.11 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 5W 4D 0L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 8L in their last 9 (0.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.00 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.00 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for SC Freiburg, 75% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SC Freiburg and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SC Freiburg's games and 75% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SC Freiburg's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SC Freiburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.60 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.84 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.02 / defence 0.87 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.78 / defence 1.49, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 74% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 44%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.11. That form edge translated into the three points. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.