SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 42%, yet in-form Borussia Dortmund provide a compelling counter-argument — this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as SC Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to Dreisamstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg at Dreisamstadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Dreisamstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of SC Freiburg's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 57% and Borussia Dortmund 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 63% | Borussia Dortmund 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.76 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.046 / defence 0.992 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.227 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.224. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 SC Freiburg games / 35 Borussia Dortmund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 42% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 31%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Dortmund 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 50% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dreisamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 42% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG SC Freiburg 1.76 / Borussia Dortmund 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.046 / def 0.992 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.227 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Borussia Dortmund xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Dreisamstadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Dreisamstadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 42% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.05x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.75
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.25
1.49
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.49 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 12W 10D 13L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 21W 4D 10L from 35 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SC Freiburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 2D 6L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.29 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 21W 4D 10L in their last 35 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.59 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.71 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 65%, Borussia Dortmund at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SC Freiburg and 71% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SC Freiburg's games and 71% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SC Freiburg's matches and 71% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at Dreisamstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.76 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.49 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 42% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 31%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 63%, Borussia Dortmund 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with SC Freiburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.