SC Freiburg 2-2 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face Bayern München.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Bayern München travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 March 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayern München stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayern München have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayern München are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayern München, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for SC Freiburg.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Bayern München winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bayern München trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 53% versus Bayern München 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 56% | Bayern München 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.00 xG and Bayern München 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.052 / defence 1.222 | Bayern München attack 1.314 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.257. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 SC Freiburg games / 57 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 39%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Bayern München 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.02 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 76% | xG SC Freiburg 2.00 / Bayern München 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.052 / def 1.222 | Bayern München attack 1.314 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Bayern München xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Bayern München.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 38% chance of winning, Bayern München a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
Record (5 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 5W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Bayern München (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.05x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.3%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
38%
2.62
23%
4.37
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
4.02
2.02
Bayern München xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.18
Clean Sheet
13%
7.53
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
5%
19.74
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 2.02 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 25W 13D 19L from 57 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München, meanwhile, have gone 38W 10D 9L across 57 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayern München by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 15W 8D 5L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayern München's away record stands at 17W 4D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.72 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Bayern München in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 25W 13D 19L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 38W 10D 9L in their last 57 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.89 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.96 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bayern München in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayern München have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bayern München won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
9
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 0, Bayern München have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 57%, Bayern München 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for SC Freiburg and 75% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SC Freiburg's games and 68% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of SC Freiburg's matches and 75% of Bayern München's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Bayern München share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as SC Freiburg and Bayern München drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.00 xG and Bayern München 2.02 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Bayern München attack 1.31 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 39%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 56%, Bayern München 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayern München's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.