Holstein Kiel 2-4 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to Holstein-Stadion to face Holstein Kiel in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Holstein Kiel's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Holstein Kiel — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 55% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 58% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.01 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.663 / defence 1.449 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.862 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.625. Holstein Kiel's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Holstein Kiel games / 38 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 16% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 59%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 16% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.01 / Eintracht Frankfurt 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.663 / def 1.449 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.862 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.625 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Holstein Kiel 2 - 4 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 16% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 0.66x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (0.86x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
16%
6.22
25%
3.99
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.04
2.03
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
6.22
16%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
13%
7.61
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
2%
47.33
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.03 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 21W 6D 11L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 14W 14D 10L from 38 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.47 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (9W 2D 8L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 6D 8L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.53 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 66%.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 21W 6D 11L in their last 38 games (1.82 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.53 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Holstein Kiel
0
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 2 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 63%, Eintracht Frankfurt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Holstein Kiel and 63% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Holstein Kiel's games and 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Holstein Kiel 2-4 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.01 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.03 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 2.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.66 / defence 1.45 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 16% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 58%, Eintracht Frankfurt 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.82 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.