Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart at Volksparkstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfB Stuttgart — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hamburger SV register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hamburger SV have won 0, VfB Stuttgart 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2023, ended 1–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 60% and VfB Stuttgart 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hamburger SV 69% | VfB Stuttgart 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.55 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.858 / defence 0.956 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.190 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.480. Data: 11 Hamburger SV games / 45 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 41%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 60% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Hamburger SV 1.55 / VfB Stuttgart 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.858 / def 0.956 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.190 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.68
VfB Stuttgart xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hamburger SV 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 35% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (2 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
35%
2.84
24%
4.16
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.24
1.68
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
7%
15.29
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.68 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 14D 13L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.60 PPG from 45 outings (21W 9D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.51 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hamburger SV's home form reads 10W 8D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.87 scored and 1.51 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 18W 14D 13L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.73 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
From 4 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 64%, VfB Stuttgart 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hamburger SV and 73% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hamburger SV's games and 64% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hamburger SV's matches and 73% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.55 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.68 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.19 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 41%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 69%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.51 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.