FSV Mainz 05 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin meet at OPEL ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1W 2D 7L at OPEL ARENA — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Union Berlin are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 58% and Union Berlin 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 53% | Union Berlin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG and Union Berlin 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.703 / defence 1.303 | Union Berlin attack 0.820 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.427. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing FSV Mainz 05's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 FSV Mainz 05 games / 19 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 26% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 47%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Union Berlin 2.13. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 50% | Union Berlin 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: OPEL ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 26% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.07 / Union Berlin 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.703 / def 1.303 | Union Berlin attack 0.820 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Union Berlin xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 February 2021 at OPEL ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at OPEL ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 26% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.82x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
26%
3.85
27%
3.71
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.60
1.52
Union Berlin xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.66
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.52 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 19 games, going 2W 4D 13L for 0.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 1W 2D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.79 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 2W 4D 13L in their last 19 games (0.53 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 7W 8D 4L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 0.56 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Union Berlin have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 44%, Union Berlin 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FSV Mainz 05) and 56% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 78% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 56% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Union Berlin 1-0 at OPEL ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG and Union Berlin 1.52 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.70 / defence 1.30 against Union Berlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 26% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 47%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 53%, Union Berlin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.