FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to OPEL ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FSV Mainz 05 at OPEL ARENA this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at OPEL ARENA this season.
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FSV Mainz 05 1.90 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 59% and Borussia Dortmund 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 47% | Borussia Dortmund 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.11 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.728 / defence 1.103 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.232 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.272. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 FSV Mainz 05 games / 32 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 22% | Draw 29% | Borussia Dortmund 49%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Borussia Dortmund 2.04. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 40% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: OPEL ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 22% | Draw 29% | Borussia Dortmund 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.11 / Borussia Dortmund 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.728 / def 1.103 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.232 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Borussia Dortmund xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at OPEL ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at OPEL ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 22% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.73x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
22%
4.55
29%
3.48
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.84
1.73
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
4%
25.62
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.73 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 9W 9D 14L from 32 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 18W 4D 10L across 32 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 4W 4D 8L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 8W 2D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.16 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 18W 4D 10L in their last 32 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.00 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.62 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Borussia Dortmund won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 50%, Borussia Dortmund 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (FSV Mainz 05) and 69% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 69% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 69% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FSV Mainz 05 1-3 at OPEL ARENA, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.11 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.73 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 1.18, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 22% | Draw 29% | Borussia Dortmund 49%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 47%, Borussia Dortmund 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.