FC Schalke 04 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to VELTINS-Arena to face FC Schalke 04 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
FC Schalke 04 (all games): 0W 3D 6L across 9 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 3.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 0W 2D 2L at VELTINS-Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.11 PPG across 9 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 3W 2D 0L from 5 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bayer Leverkusen are 1.78 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.11 vs 0.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Bayer Leverkusen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
FC Schalke 04 half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 56% and Bayer Leverkusen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 67% | Bayer Leverkusen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 0.91 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.697 / defence 1.164 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.867 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.615. FC Schalke 04's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 FC Schalke 04 games / 9 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 17% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 5.88 | Draw 3.12 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.96. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 75% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 17% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Schalke 04 0.91 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.697 / def 1.164 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.867 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.615 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Bayer Leverkusen xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 December 2020 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Schalke 04 0 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 17% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 51% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 3.11 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-4D-0L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (0.70) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.87x) against FC Schalke 04's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
17%
5.75
32%
3.15
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.54
1.63
Bayer Leverkusen xG
5.75
17%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
3%
29.37
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.63 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Schalke 04 come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 3D 6L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (5W 4D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.78 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Schalke 04's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 3.11 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.78 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 5W 4D 0L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 0.50 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.50 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Schalke 04 have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC Schalke 04
0
Draws
4
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when FC Schalke 04 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for FC Schalke 04, 75% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (FC Schalke 04) and 50% (Bayer Leverkusen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Schalke 04's games and 75% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of FC Schalke 04's recent games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC Schalke 04 0-3 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 0.91 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.63 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.70 / defence 1.16 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 17% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.