FC Augsburg 4-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.00 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 51% and VfB Stuttgart 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 49% | VfB Stuttgart 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.19 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.773 / defence 1.200 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.834 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.263. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 FC Augsburg games / 43 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 34% | VfB Stuttgart 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | VfB Stuttgart 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | VfB Stuttgart 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 34% | VfB Stuttgart 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Augsburg 1.19 / VfB Stuttgart 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.773 / def 1.200 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.834 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
VfB Stuttgart xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
FC Augsburg 4 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 31% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.77) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.83x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
31%
3.20
34%
2.94
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.45
1.26
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.26 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 9D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (14W 13D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.28 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.63 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 14W 13D 16L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.24 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
8
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 52%, VfB Stuttgart 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FC Augsburg) and 57% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games; VfB Stuttgart in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC Augsburg's games and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 57% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Augsburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfB Stuttgart 4-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.19 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.26 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 34% | VfB Stuttgart 35%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 49%, VfB Stuttgart 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 0.98 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.