FC Augsburg 1-4 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 games at WWK Arena this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.43 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.10 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 50% and VfB Stuttgart 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 43% | VfB Stuttgart 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.03 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.764 / defence 1.233 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.134 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.530. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 FC Augsburg games / 14 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 15% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 60%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 6.67 | Draw 4.00 | VfB Stuttgart 1.67. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 43% | VfB Stuttgart 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 15% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Augsburg 1.03 / VfB Stuttgart 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.764 / def 1.233 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.134 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.14
VfB Stuttgart xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 10 January 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
FC Augsburg 1 - 4 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 15% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 60% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.76) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.13x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
15%
6.73
25%
4.03
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.17
2.14
VfB Stuttgart xG
6.73
15%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
12%
8.48
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
2%
57.08
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 2.14 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 4D 5L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.29 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.29 PPG overall record — VfB Stuttgart travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.86 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 79%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.14 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
8
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 43%, VfB Stuttgart 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Augsburg) and 57% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of FC Augsburg's games and 71% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 57% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 1-4 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.03 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.14 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 2.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.23 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 15% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 60%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 43%, VfB Stuttgart 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.36 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.