FC Augsburg 1-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host RB Leipzig at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Leipzig — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Leipzig in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
RB Leipzig trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 53% versus RB Leipzig 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 49% | RB Leipzig 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.56 xG and RB Leipzig 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.008 / defence 1.148 | RB Leipzig attack 0.784 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.365. Data: 49 FC Augsburg games / 49 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | RB Leipzig 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Augsburg 1.56 / RB Leipzig 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.008 / def 1.148 | RB Leipzig attack 0.784 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
RB Leipzig xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 43% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.47
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.79
1.23
RB Leipzig xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
6%
17.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.23 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 14W 10D 25L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 25W 11D 13L from 49 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 8W 7D 9L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.82 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 25L in their last 49 games (1.06 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 25W 11D 13L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.33 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.29 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 58%, RB Leipzig 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Augsburg) and 46% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Augsburg's games and 54% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 46% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 16, as FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.56 xG and RB Leipzig 1.23 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against RB Leipzig attack 0.78 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 28%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 49%, RB Leipzig 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.