FC Augsburg 4-4 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 44%, yet in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Augsburg stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Augsburg at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for FC Augsburg, 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended FC Augsburg 0–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 41% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 62% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.66 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.830 / defence 0.994 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.963 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.843 / away 1.357. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 34 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.28 | Draw 3.56 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 40% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (FC Augsburg 34 games, Borussia Mönchengladbach 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 1 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG FC Augsburg 1.66 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.830 / def 0.994 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.963 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.843 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg 4 - 4 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 1) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 44% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 34 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.56
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.96
1.30
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
5%
18.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.30 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 34 games, going 9W 7D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.26 PPG from 34 outings (11W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.00 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across their last 17 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 17 away games (1W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.53 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Pre-Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Pre-Season
FC Augsburg (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Pre-Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Pre-Season
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 9W 7D 18L in their last 34 games (1.00 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 11W 10D 13L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.29 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 FC Augsburg.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 47%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Augsburg) and 71% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC Augsburg's games and 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of FC Augsburg's matches and 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 41% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 76% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 4-4 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.66 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.83 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 28%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.00 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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