Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Werder Bremen travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2020, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 2W 2D 1L from 5 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.60 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 80% and Werder Bremen 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Werder Bremen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 xG and Werder Bremen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.952 / defence 1.100 | Werder Bremen attack 0.987 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.321. Data: 5 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 5 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 30% | Draw 33% | Werder Bremen 37%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Werder Bremen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | Werder Bremen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 30% | Draw 33% | Werder Bremen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 / Werder Bremen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.952 / def 1.100 | Werder Bremen attack 0.987 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Werder Bremen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 October 2020 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 30% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.95) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
30%
3.28
33%
3.04
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.73
1.43
Werder Bremen xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.43 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 1L across 5 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.60 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
Werder Bremen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 80%, Werder Bremen at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 40% (Werder Bremen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 80% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 40% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen finished level at 1-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 xG and Werder Bremen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Werder Bremen attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 30% | Draw 33% | Werder Bremen 37%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 60%, Werder Bremen 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.