Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim make the trip to Frankfurt Arena to face Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 5D 1L at Frankfurt Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1899 Hoffenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Eintracht Frankfurt's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 2W, 1899 Hoffenheim 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and 1899 Hoffenheim 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 59% | 1899 Hoffenheim 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.969 / defence 0.945 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.216 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.343. 1899 Hoffenheim have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 58 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Frankfurt Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.969 / def 0.945 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.216 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.54
1899 Hoffenheim xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Frankfurt Arena.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Frankfurt Arena.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 42% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.97) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (1.22x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
42%
2.39
25%
3.93
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.31
1.54
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
6%
17.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.54 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 58 games, going 22W 21D 15L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.19 PPG from 58 outings (19W 12D 27L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.19 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 14W 10D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (9W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.57 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 76%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 22W 21D 15L in their last 58 games (1.50 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 12D 27L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.86 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
3
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Eintracht Frankfurt, 71% for 1899 Hoffenheim — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 64% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 71% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 at Frankfurt Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.22 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, 1899 Hoffenheim 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.