Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees VfL Bochum travel to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum — All Games: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum away from home this season: 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.40 PPG versus VfL Bochum's 1.11. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
VfL Bochum trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 56% versus VfL Bochum 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 44% | VfL Bochum 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 xG and VfL Bochum 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.969 / defence 0.798 | VfL Bochum attack 0.614 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.260. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 9 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 7%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.43 | Draw 4.55 | VfL Bochum 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (70%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | VfL Bochum 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 43% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 / VfL Bochum 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.969 / def 0.798 | VfL Bochum attack 0.614 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.62
VfL Bochum xG
43%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 70% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 7% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.97) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
70%
1.42
22%
4.45
7%
13.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.75
0.62
VfL Bochum xG
1.42
70%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
13.76
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
38%
2.64
1%
115.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.62 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 5L across 9 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.22 PPG, VfL Bochum on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VfL Bochum's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 0.78 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum in 22%.
Defensively: VfL Bochum in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfL Bochum away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 2.00 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Mönchengladbach have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting VfL Bochum specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 7, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
VfL Bochum tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 75%, VfL Bochum 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 75% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 25% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 75% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Mönchengladbach edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 xG and VfL Bochum 0.62 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.97 / defence 0.80 against VfL Bochum attack 0.61 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 7%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 44%, VfL Bochum 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.22 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.