Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 0W 0D 6L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.53 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.983 / defence 0.866 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.804 / defence 1.519. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.217. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.519 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 11 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 54% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.53 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.983 / def 0.866 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.804 / def 1.519 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.85
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 72% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.53. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.25
9%
11.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.38
0.85
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
11.40
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
8%
12.54
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
143.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.85 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 3D 4L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 0.09 PPG from 11 outings (0W 1D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.00 points per game from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.73 scored and 2.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 10L in their last 11 (0.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 2.20 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 80%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 80% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-0 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.53 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.85 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.80 / defence 1.52, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 46%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.09. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.