Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome 1. FC Köln to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for 1. FC Köln and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2020, ended 3–1 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 79% and 1. FC Köln 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | 1. FC Köln 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.93 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.162 / defence 1.035 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.604 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.425. 1. FC Köln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 19 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 16%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Köln 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% | 1. FC Köln 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.93 / 1. FC Köln 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.162 / def 1.035 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.604 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.89
1. FC Köln xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 February 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 1. FC Köln.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 61% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.51
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.82
0.89
1. FC Köln xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
15%
6.89
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
2%
41.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.89 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 19 games, going 8W 8D 3L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 5W 3D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 0.95 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 8D 3L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 78%, 1. FC Köln 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 44% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 44% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 44% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.93 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.89 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Köln outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.16 / defence 1.03 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.60 / defence 1.33, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 16%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Köln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%, 1. FC Köln 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Köln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.