Bayern München 3-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayern München at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayern München vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Union Berlin travel to Allianz Arena to take on Bayern München. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Bayern München have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's home record at Allianz Arena: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Bayern München) versus 1.80 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bayern München: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Union Berlin, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 5–1 with Bayern München winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayern München and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bayern München in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayern München 57% versus Union Berlin 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayern München 81% | Union Berlin 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 1.47 xG and Union Berlin 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.299 / defence 0.650 | Union Berlin attack 0.694 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.614. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union Berlin's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Bayern München games / 42 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 51% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 15%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.96 | Draw 2.94 | Union Berlin 6.67. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayern München 50% | Union Berlin 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Allianz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 51% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Bayern München 1.47 / Union Berlin 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.299 / def 0.650 | Union Berlin attack 0.694 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.614 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Union Berlin xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs Union Berlin kick off?
Bayern München vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Allianz Arena.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Bayern München 3 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Bayern München vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Arena.
What competition is Bayern München vs Union Berlin part of?
Bayern München vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 51% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 15% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bayern München and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
Record (6 meetings): Bayern München 5W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are Bayern München and Union Berlin in?
Bayern München (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayern München's attack at 1.30x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
51%
1.95
34%
2.97
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bayern München xG
Total xG
2.20
0.73
Union Berlin xG
1.95
51%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
3%
29.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.73 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayern München come into this having played 42 games, going 29W 5D 8L for 2.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.14 PPG from 42 outings (13W 9D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayern München's home form reads 16W 2D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (2W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayern München are averaging 2.93 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 29W 5D 8L in their last 42 games (2.19 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 13W 9D 20L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Union Berlin away?
Bayern München's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.50 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Bayern München or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayern München and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Bayern München won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayern München's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bayern München
3
Draws
0
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 7, Union Berlin have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bayern München 40% BTTS, Union Berlin 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Bayern München) and 25% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Union Berlin in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bayern München's recent matches and 25% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayern München vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Bayern München's recent games and 25% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bayern München and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Union Berlin 3-0 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 1.47 xG and Union Berlin 0.73 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bayern München beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.30 / defence 0.65 against Union Berlin attack 0.69 / defence 0.71, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 51% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 15%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 81%, Union Berlin 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.