Bayer Leverkusen 5-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 4W 3D 2L this season (9 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant games, VfB Stuttgart in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 58% and VfB Stuttgart 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 53% | VfB Stuttgart 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.59 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.023 / defence 1.013 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.070 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.427. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Bayer Leverkusen games / 19 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 38% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 37%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | VfB Stuttgart 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 78% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 38% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.59 / VfB Stuttgart 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.023 / def 1.013 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.070 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
VfB Stuttgart xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 February 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer Leverkusen 5 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 38% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.02) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.07x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
38%
2.60
25%
4.02
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.13
1.55
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.55 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 9W 5D 5L from 19 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 6L across 19 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.32 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.84 scored and 1.53 conceded. VfB Stuttgart's attacking output running into Bayer Leverkusen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.67 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bayer Leverkusen
4
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Bayer Leverkusen, 67% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Bayer Leverkusen and 67% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 5-2 hammering of VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat VfB Stuttgart 5-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.59 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 38% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 37%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 53%, VfB Stuttgart 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.