Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 51%, yet in-form SC Freiburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 28 February 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 3D 2L at BayArena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bayer Leverkusen are significantly better at BayArena than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, SC Freiburg are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 64% and SC Freiburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 54% | SC Freiburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 xG and SC Freiburg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.246 / defence 1.116 | SC Freiburg attack 0.710 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.419. Data: 22 Bayer Leverkusen games / 22 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 51% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 4.35. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 80% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 51% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 / SC Freiburg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.246 / def 1.116 | SC Freiburg attack 0.710 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
SC Freiburg xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 February 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 51% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.25x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.71x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.90
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.88
1.12
SC Freiburg xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.12 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 10W 7D 5L from 22 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 7L across 22 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.41 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.59 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or SC Freiburg away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.80 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Draws
2
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Bayer Leverkusen, 50% for SC Freiburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bayer Leverkusen and 60% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 60% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 xG and SC Freiburg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.25 / defence 1.12 against SC Freiburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 51% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 23%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 54%, SC Freiburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.