Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 January 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld at SchücoArena this season: 2W 0D 4L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 46% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 46% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.47 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.772 / defence 1.173 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.118 / defence 1.588. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.569. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.588 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Arminia Bielefeld games / 13 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.04. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 50% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 83% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.47 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.772 / def 1.173 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.118 / def 1.588 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.569 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 January 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 25% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.77x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
25%
4.03
27%
3.76
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.53
2.06
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
13%
7.83
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
3%
31.57
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 2.06 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 3W 1D 9L from 13 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 3L across 13 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Mönchengladbach by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.85 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 1D 9L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 6D 3L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.00 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2021, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Arminia Bielefeld at 50%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Arminia Bielefeld and 100% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 83% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 100% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Mönchengladbach edge out Arminia Bielefeld 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.47 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.06 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.12 / defence 1.59, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 46%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.