Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SchücoArena, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SchücoArena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Arminia Bielefeld, 2 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2021, ended 0–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 38% versus Borussia Dortmund 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Borussia Dortmund 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.05 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.608 / defence 0.986 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.180 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.274. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Arminia Bielefeld games / 42 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 24% | Draw 33% | Borussia Dortmund 44%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Borussia Dortmund 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 20% | Borussia Dortmund 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 24% | Draw 33% | Borussia Dortmund 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.05 / Borussia Dortmund 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.608 / def 0.986 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.180 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 24% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (2 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 2W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.61x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
24%
4.25
33%
3.07
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.53
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
5%
18.70
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.48 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 42 games, going 9W 13D 20L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.95 PPG from 42 outings (26W 4D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (10W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.31 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 69%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 9W 13D 20L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 26W 4D 12L in their last 42 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.00 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 30%, Borussia Dortmund 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 70% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Borussia Dortmund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 70% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 70% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.05 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.61 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.18 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 24% | Draw 33% | Borussia Dortmund 44%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 38%, Borussia Dortmund 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.