1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt meet at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1899 Hoffenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1899 Hoffenheim's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at PreZero Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.70 for Eintracht Frankfurt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1899 Hoffenheim register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1899 Hoffenheim lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 3–1 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1899 Hoffenheim half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 71% and Eintracht Frankfurt 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 66% | Eintracht Frankfurt 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.81 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.980 / defence 1.171 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.788 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.907 / away 1.406. Data: 41 1899 Hoffenheim games / 41 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 27%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.70. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 80% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.81 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.980 / def 1.171 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.788 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.907 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 49% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (4 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 2W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (0.79x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.22
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.11
1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
4%
22.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.30 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1899 Hoffenheim's recent record stands at 15W 6D 20L from 41 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 11L across 41 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.46 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1899 Hoffenheim have managed 8W 2D 10L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 4W 8D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Frankfurt's season.
Attack vs Defence
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.56 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 15W 6D 20L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 15W 15D 11L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.30 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1899 Hoffenheim
2
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for 1899 Hoffenheim, 75% for Eintracht Frankfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 60% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 60% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.81 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 27%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 66%, Eintracht Frankfurt 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.24 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.