1. FC Köln 0-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to RheinEnergieStadion to take on 1. FC Köln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Köln — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Köln at RheinEnergieStadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
1. FC Köln are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Köln, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 64% versus VfL Wolfsburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 56% | VfL Wolfsburg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 2.05 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.966 / defence 0.964 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.807 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.371. VfL Wolfsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 1. FC Köln games / 66 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 59% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 18%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Wolfsburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Köln (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Köln 40% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 59% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Köln 2.05 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.966 / def 0.964 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.807 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.07
VfL Wolfsburg xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
1. FC Köln 0 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 59% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 1 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.97x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.23
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.11
1.07
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
2%
43.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.07 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Köln come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 19D 24L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.50 PPG from 66 outings (28W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.33 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Köln's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.27 points per game from 33 outings (11W 9D 13L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 23W 19D 24L in their last 66 games (1.33 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 28W 15D 23L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.36 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Köln's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
4
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 3, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 64%, VfL Wolfsburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1. FC Köln) and 54% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of 1. FC Köln's games and 54% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 54% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.05 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.07 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.28, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 59% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 18%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a VfL Wolfsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 56%, VfL Wolfsburg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.33 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.