Werder Bremen 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Werder Bremen welcome 1. FC Nürnberg to wohninvest WESERSTADION. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Werder Bremen at 2.10 PPG versus 1. FC Nürnberg's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Werder Bremen trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 66% and 1. FC Nürnberg 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 69% | 1. FC Nürnberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.55 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.058 / defence 0.917 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.982 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.338. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Werder Bremen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Werder Bremen games / 29 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 43% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 43% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Werder Bremen 1.55 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.058 / def 0.917 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.982 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.20
1. FC Nürnberg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Werder Bremen 1 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 43% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (1 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 0W.
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.27
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.75
1.20
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.20 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 15W 8D 6L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 14W 7D 8L from 29 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.83 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 4D 4L from 14 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.52 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Current Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 15W 8D 6L in their last 29 games (1.83 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14W 7D 8L in their last 29 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.86 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
0
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when Werder Bremen 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Werder Bremen) and 64% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Werder Bremen's games and 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Werder Bremen's matches and 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 1-1 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.55 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 43% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 69%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.83 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.