SV Sandhausen 0-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Sandhausen — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Sandhausen have posted 1W 3D 6L at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SV Sandhausen, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SV Sandhausen in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 62% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 55% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.45 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.739 / defence 1.569 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.919 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.264. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing SV Sandhausen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 SV Sandhausen games / 26 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 31% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.17. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 31% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.45 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.739 / def 1.569 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.919 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Sandhausen 0 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 31% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Sandhausen's attack at 0.74x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SV Sandhausen's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
31%
3.24
23%
4.40
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
3.27
1.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
5%
20.06
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.82 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, SV Sandhausen have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 15W 17D 28L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 10W 18D 32L from 60 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Sandhausen on 1.03 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Sandhausen have posted 1.00 PPG from 29 outings (7W 8D 14L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 7D 21L from 29 away games — 0.34 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Sandhausen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.05 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 15W 17D 28L in their last 60 games (1.03 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 10W 18D 32L in their last 60 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Sandhausen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 1.00 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Sandhausen at 59%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for SV Sandhausen and 79% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SV Sandhausen's games and 76% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of SV Sandhausen's matches and 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Sandhausen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Sandhausen 0-2 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.45 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Sandhausen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.74 / defence 1.57 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.92 / defence 1.31, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 31% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 55%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 1.03 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.