SV Sandhausen 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald plays host to SV Sandhausen versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Sandhausen have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Sandhausen have posted 0W 2D 5L at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald — 0.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 0L from 7 away outings — 2.43 PPG. They are averaging 2.57 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.43 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, SC Paderborn 07 are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
SV Sandhausen half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 67% and SC Paderborn 07 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Sandhausen 67% | SC Paderborn 07 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 0.93 xG and SC Paderborn 07 2.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.733 / defence 1.662 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.305 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.334. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Paderborn 07 have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 2.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 SV Sandhausen games / 15 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 7% | Draw 17% | SC Paderborn 07 76%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 14.29 | Draw 5.88 | SC Paderborn 07 1.32. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (76%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 57% | SC Paderborn 07 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 7% | Draw 17% | SC Paderborn 07 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 59% | xG SV Sandhausen 0.93 / SC Paderborn 07 2.89 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.733 / def 1.662 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.305 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
2.89
SC Paderborn 07 xG
59%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 7% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 76% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (0.73) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.30x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.66x) — and the away total comes out at 2.89.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
7%
13.66
17%
5.91
76%
1.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
3.82
2.89
SC Paderborn 07 xG
13.66
7%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
1.32
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
6%
18.05
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
0%
–
30%
3.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.7 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 2.89 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Sandhausen's recent record stands at 3W 3D 9L from 15 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 3L across 15 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Sandhausen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Sandhausen have managed 0W 2D 5L from 7 games — 0.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.80 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 5W 2D 0L across 7 trips, a 2.43 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.73 PPG overall record — SC Paderborn 07 travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.93 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 73%.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.29 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 2.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 on 16 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
2
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 57%, SC Paderborn 07 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for SV Sandhausen and 71% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 43%; SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 43% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SV Sandhausen's games and 57% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SV Sandhausen's matches and 71% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 16, as SV Sandhausen and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 0.93 xG and SC Paderborn 07 2.89 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.73 / defence 1.66 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.30 / defence 1.02, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 7% | Draw 17% | SC Paderborn 07 76%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 67%, SC Paderborn 07 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.