SV Sandhausen 0-3 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season: 0W 3D 5L from 8 home games — 0.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.38 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 1.10 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SV Sandhausen, 1 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 0–3 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SV Sandhausen — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 67% and SSV Jahn Regensburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Sandhausen 61% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.22 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.768 / defence 1.397 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.841 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.333. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing SV Sandhausen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 SV Sandhausen games / 18 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 27% | Draw 29% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 43%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: SV Sandhausen 62% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 27% | Draw 29% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.22 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.768 / def 1.397 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.841 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.57
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SV Sandhausen 0 - 3 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 27% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (1 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Sandhausen's attack at 0.77x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.84x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
27%
3.65
29%
3.40
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.78
1.57
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.47
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.57 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, SV Sandhausen have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 4W 5D 9L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 8W 4D 6L from 18 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Sandhausen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Sandhausen have posted 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L). That actually lags their 0.94 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.94 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 61%.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.38 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SSV Jahn Regensburg won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Sandhausen
0
Draws
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 1, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 62%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Sandhausen) and 50% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 38%; SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 50% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SSV Jahn Regensburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SV Sandhausen 0-3 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.22 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SV Sandhausen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SSV Jahn Regensburg outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.77 / defence 1.40 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 27% | Draw 29% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 43%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 61%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.