SV Sandhausen 3-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen host Hannover 96 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Sandhausen — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Sandhausen at 1.40 PPG versus Hannover 96's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SV Sandhausen, 0 for Hannover 96 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with SV Sandhausen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Sandhausen trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 58% versus Hannover 96 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 50% | Hannover 96 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.07 xG and Hannover 96 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.792 / defence 1.201 | Hannover 96 attack 0.828 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.496. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hannover 96 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing SV Sandhausen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 SV Sandhausen games / 24 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 24% | Draw 33% | Hannover 96 43%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Hannover 96 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hannover 96 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Sandhausen 60% | Hannover 96 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 24% | Draw 33% | Hannover 96 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.07 / Hannover 96 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.792 / def 1.201 | Hannover 96 attack 0.828 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Hannover 96 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96?
SV Sandhausen 3 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 part of?
SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 24% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96?
Record (1 meetings): SV Sandhausen 1W | Draws 0 | Hannover 96 0W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96 in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Hannover 96 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (0.79) and Hannover 96's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SV Sandhausen's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
24%
4.24
33%
3.00
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.56
1.49
Hannover 96 xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
18.79
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.49 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Sandhausen come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 8D 10L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hannover 96 sit at 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Sandhausen on 1.08 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SV Sandhausen's home form reads 1W 4D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.64 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.08 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Hannover 96 have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 0.96 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hannover 96's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.64 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.27 PPG.
Have SV Sandhausen or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Sandhausen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hannover 96 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
SV Sandhausen's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Sandhausen
0
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 2, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Hannover 96 3-1 SV Sandhausen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 54%, Hannover 96 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SV Sandhausen) and 64% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 36%; SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 36% of games; Hannover 96 in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play Hannover 96?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 36% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 64% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Sandhausen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hannover 96.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat Hannover 96 3-1 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.07 xG and Hannover 96 1.49 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Sandhausen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Hannover 96 attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 24% | Draw 33% | Hannover 96 43%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a SV Sandhausen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 50%, Hannover 96 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 1.08 PPG, Hannover 96 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Sandhausen win broke the near-deadlock. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.