SV Sandhausen 1-2 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald plays host to SV Sandhausen versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 19 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SV Sandhausen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 2D 4L this season (6 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season.
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record: 1W 4D 1L from 6 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 1.60 for 1. FC Nürnberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
SV Sandhausen half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 58% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 58% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 0.93 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.725 / defence 1.659 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.774 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.389. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 SV Sandhausen games / 13 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 16% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 54%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 6.25 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1.85. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SV Sandhausen 50% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 16% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG SV Sandhausen 0.93 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.725 / def 1.659 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.774 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.78
1. FC Nürnberg xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 November 2021 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 16% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 54% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Sandhausen's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.77x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
16%
6.22
30%
3.36
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.78
1. FC Nürnberg xG
6.22
16%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
3%
37.00
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.78 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Sandhausen's recent record stands at 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 2L across 12 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Nürnberg by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Sandhausen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SV Sandhausen have managed 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 1W 4D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Nürnberg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.42 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.33 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.17 PPG.
Have SV Sandhausen or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Sandhausen have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Nürnberg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Sandhausen
0
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 50%, 1. FC Nürnberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Sandhausen) and 50% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%; SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 50% of games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out SV Sandhausen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Sandhausen 1-2 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 0.93 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.78 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.72 / defence 1.66 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.77 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 16% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 54%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 58%, 1. FC Nürnberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.