SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 6W 4D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward SV Darmstadt 98. A 1.10 PPG lead over SSV Jahn Regensburg (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 2 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 57% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 59% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.81 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.039 / defence 0.824 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.048 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.308. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 51 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 53% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 23%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.35. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 53% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.81 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.039 / def 0.824 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.048 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.13
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 2 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 53% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.04) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (1.05x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.30
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.94
1.13
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
4%
26.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.13 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 28W 12D 11L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 15W 14D 22L from 51 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (15W 7D 3L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 6W 6D 13L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.37 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 28W 12D 11L in their last 51 games (1.88 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.08 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.96 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 48% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 40% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 48% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.81 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.04 / defence 0.82 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.22, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 53% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 23%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 59%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.