SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-2 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host Holstein Kiel at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SpVgg Greuther Fürth haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Holstein Kiel haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Holstein Kiel are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Holstein Kiel in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Holstein Kiel trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65% and Holstein Kiel 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65% | Holstein Kiel 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.003 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.363. Data: 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 34 Holstein Kiel games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 29% | Holstein Kiel 38%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Holstein Kiel 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | Holstein Kiel 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 29% | Holstein Kiel 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 / Holstein Kiel 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.003 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Holstein Kiel xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 2 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 33% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
33%
3.05
29%
3.41
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.03
1.57
Holstein Kiel xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.57 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 34 games, going 3W 9D 22L for 0.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.32 PPG from 34 outings (12W 9D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. Holstein Kiel haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 3W 5D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.35 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Pre-Season
Holstein Kiel
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 9D 22L in their last 34 games (0.53 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.82 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 59%, Holstein Kiel at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 71% (Holstein Kiel). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 82% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 71% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 1, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.57 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 29% | Holstein Kiel 38%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%, Holstein Kiel 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.