SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face 1. FC Magdeburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Magdeburg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
1. FC Magdeburg — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 1.80 PPG versus 1. FC Magdeburg's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 90% of 1. FC Magdeburg's (from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–2 1. FC Magdeburg — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | 1. FC Magdeburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.024 / defence 1.258 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.602 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.282. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.602, which lifts their away xG to 2.58. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output up. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 58 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 58.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Magdeburg 56%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.21 | Draw 4.97 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1.78. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.28. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.28 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (1.70 / 2.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Magdeburg 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 / 1. FC Magdeburg 2.58 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.024 / def 1.258 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.602 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
2.58
1. FC Magdeburg xG
76%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 56% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 2.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 58 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (6.9%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
24%
4.21
20%
4.97
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
4.28
2.58
1. FC Magdeburg xG
4.21
24%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.23
Clean Sheet
8%
13.22
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
2%
55.61
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.58 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 4.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 23W 13D 22L from 58 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 19L across 58 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.41 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 15W 6D 8L from their last 29 home games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 12W 6D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.69 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg in 64%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs 1. FC Magdeburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 13D 22L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 20W 19D 19L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.76 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 62% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 76% of 1. FC Magdeburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 1-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.58 xG, a combined 4.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.60 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Magdeburg 56%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%, 1. FC Magdeburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.41 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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