SC Paderborn 07 0-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Schalke 04 at Benteler-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 60% and FC Schalke 04 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 80% | FC Schalke 04 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.82 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.233 / defence 1.259 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.981 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.304. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 SC Paderborn 07 games / 5 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 28% | FC Schalke 04 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | FC Schalke 04 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 60% | FC Schalke 04 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 28% | FC Schalke 04 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.82 / FC Schalke 04 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.233 / def 1.259 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.981 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.61
FC Schalke 04 xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 40% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.23) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.55
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.43
1.61
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.61 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 3W 2D 0L from 5 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Schalke 04 heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. FC Schalke 04's attacking output running into SC Paderborn 07's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Schalke 04 in 80%.
Defensively: SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
5
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 60%, FC Schalke 04 at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for SC Paderborn 07 and 80% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 80% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 80% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SC Paderborn 07 0-1 at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.82 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.61 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.23 / defence 1.26 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.98 / defence 1.28, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 28% | FC Schalke 04 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 80%, FC Schalke 04 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with FC Schalke 04 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Paderborn 07 managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Schalke 04 managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.