SC Paderborn 07 2-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to Benteler-Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1W 2D 3L at Benteler-Arena — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.83 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Benteler-Arena this season.
FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 75% versus FC Ingolstadt 04 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 75% | FC Ingolstadt 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.77 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.955 / defence 1.188 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.620 / defence 1.607. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.360. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.607 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 SC Paderborn 07 games / 12 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 52% | Draw 30% | FC Ingolstadt 04 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | FC Ingolstadt 04 5.56. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 83% | FC Ingolstadt 04 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 52% | Draw 30% | FC Ingolstadt 04 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.77 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.955 / def 1.188 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.620 / def 1.607 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 52% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Ingolstadt 04's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
52%
1.92
30%
3.34
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.78
1.00
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
3%
33.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.00 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 3D 3L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Ingolstadt 04 sit at 0.42 PPG from 12 outings (1W 2D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, FC Ingolstadt 04 have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.58 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 2D 9L in their last 12 (0.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 0.83 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 83%, FC Ingolstadt 04 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 33% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out FC Ingolstadt 04 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 2-1 at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.77 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.00 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.62 / defence 1.61, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 52% | Draw 30% | FC Ingolstadt 04 18%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 75%, FC Ingolstadt 04 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.42. Form held, and they took the win. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.