SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SSV Jahn Regensburg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SV Darmstadt 98 haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
SV Darmstadt 98 arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W, SV Darmstadt 98 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 59% versus SV Darmstadt 98 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | SV Darmstadt 98 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.40 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.937 / defence 1.106 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.022 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.363. Data: 34 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 34 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 38%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.40 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.937 / def 1.106 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.022 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 32% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (2 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.02x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
32%
3.12
30%
3.35
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.94
1.54
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.55
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.54 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 10D 14L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.76 PPG from 34 outings (18W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. SV Darmstadt 98 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.09 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Pre-Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 18W 6D 10L in their last 34 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.29 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.59 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 65% for SV Darmstadt 98 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 65% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 65% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 65% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.40 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.54 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 38%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual SSV Jahn Regensburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53%, SV Darmstadt 98 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.