SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as SSV Jahn Regensburg welcome 1. FC Heidenheim to Jahnstadion Regensburg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (SSV Jahn Regensburg) versus 0.90 (1. FC Heidenheim). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 62% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 56% | 1. FC Heidenheim 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.50 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.008 / defence 1.300 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.600 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.449. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 32 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 25%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Heidenheim 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 70% | 1. FC Heidenheim 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.50 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.008 / def 1.300 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.600 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
1. FC Heidenheim xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 0 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 43% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 1.01x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.11
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.63
1.13
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
17.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.13 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 10W 10D 12L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 13W 7D 12L from 32 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.25 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 4W 3D 9L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 10W 10D 12L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 7D 12L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.38 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: 1. FC Heidenheim have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
4
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 75%, 1. FC Heidenheim 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 50% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-2 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.50 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.13 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.30 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.60 / defence 1.28, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 25%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Heidenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 56%, 1. FC Heidenheim 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.25 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.