Holstein Kiel 3-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host FC St. Pauli at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC St. Pauli — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Holstein Kiel, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 0–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 65% and FC St. Pauli 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 76% | FC St. Pauli 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.43 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.859 / defence 1.309 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.008 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.288. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Holstein Kiel games / 17 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 30% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 42%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC St. Pauli 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | FC St. Pauli 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 30% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.43 / FC St. Pauli 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.859 / def 1.309 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.008 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.70
FC St. Pauli xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Holstein Kiel 3 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 30% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): Holstein Kiel 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 0.86x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.52
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.12
1.70
FC St. Pauli xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.28
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.70 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 3L across 17 games — 2.12 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Holstein Kiel heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 3D 3L in their last 17 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.22 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
6
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 44%, FC St. Pauli 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Holstein Kiel and 56% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 44% of games; FC St. Pauli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Holstein Kiel's games and 67% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 56% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Holstein Kiel run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat FC St. Pauli 3-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.43 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.70 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.01 / defence 1.30, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 30% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 42%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 76%, FC St. Pauli 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.