Hertha BSC 1-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hertha BSC face Hannover 96.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host Hannover 96 at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 31). Kick-off is Friday 26 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hertha BSC at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hannover 96 stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hertha BSC at 1.80 PPG versus Hannover 96's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Hertha BSC have won 0, Hannover 96 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Hertha BSC 2–2 Hannover 96 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 69% and Hannover 96 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 67% | Hannover 96 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hertha BSC surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Hannover 96 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.03 xG and Hannover 96 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.473 / defence 1.202 | Hannover 96 attack 0.995 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.360. Hertha BSC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.473 — their 2.03 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Hertha BSC's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hannover 96's projected output up. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 30 games and Hannover 96's last 64.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 31%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.14 | Draw 4.43 | Hannover 96 3.25. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.63) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 80% (last 10 home games) | Hannover 96 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Hertha BSC 2.03 / Hannover 96 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.473 / def 1.202 | Hannover 96 attack 0.995 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Hannover 96 xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96?
Hertha BSC 1 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 part of?
Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 47% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Hannover 96's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 30 games and Hannover 96's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.43
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.65
1.63
Hannover 96 xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
4%
24.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.63 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC come into this having played 64 games, going 19W 16D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hannover 96 sit at 1.39 PPG from 64 outings (23W 20D 21L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.14 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hertha BSC's home form reads 12W 11D 9L across their last 32 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Hannover 96 have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 32 away games (8W 11D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.59 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Hannover 96 in 64%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
Hannover 96
Current Season
Hertha BSC (Home) vs Hannover 96 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Current Season
Hannover 96
Current Season
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 19W 16D 29L in their last 64 games (1.14 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.47 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2025, when Hertha BSC won Hannover 96 0-3 Hertha BSC.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
4
Draws
1
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Hannover 96?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Hertha BSC 2-3 Hannover 96.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 66%, Hannover 96 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Hertha BSC and 56% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hannover 96 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Hertha BSC's games and 62% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Hertha BSC's matches and 56% of Hannover 96's.
Do Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 75% of Hannover 96's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and Hannover 96 finished level at 1-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 2.03 xG and Hannover 96 1.63 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.47 / defence 1.20 against Hannover 96 attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 31%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 67%, Hannover 96 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.14 PPG, Hannover 96 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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