Hansa Rostock 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Hansa Rostock welcome Arminia Bielefeld to Ostseestadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Arminia Bielefeld have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Hansa Rostock are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 53% versus Arminia Bielefeld 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 50% | Arminia Bielefeld 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.43 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.809 / defence 0.983 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.854 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.332. Data: 36 Hansa Rostock games / 2 Arminia Bielefeld games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 43% | Draw 28% | Arminia Bielefeld 29%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hansa Rostock 40% | Arminia Bielefeld 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 43% | Draw 28% | Arminia Bielefeld 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.43 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.809 / def 0.983 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.854 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 43% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.81x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.51
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.55
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.12 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 11W 11D 14L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arminia Bielefeld, meanwhile, have gone 5W 13D 18L across 36 games — 0.78 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hansa Rostock by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 4W 5D 9L from 18 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record stands at 3W 3D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.78 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 13D 18L in their last 36 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.94 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 2 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 61%, Arminia Bielefeld 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hansa Rostock) and 44% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 33% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 39% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 44% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out Arminia Bielefeld 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.43 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 43% | Draw 28% | Arminia Bielefeld 29%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 50%, Arminia Bielefeld 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.