Hannover 96 0-3 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Hannover 96 take on 1. FC Nürnberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees 1. FC Nürnberg travel to HDI-Arena to take on Hannover 96. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96's home record at HDI-Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at HDI-Arena.
1. FC Nürnberg — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Hannover 96) versus 1.80 (1. FC Nürnberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hannover 96, 0 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 40% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 48% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.18 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.807 / defence 0.945 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.856 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.462. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Hannover 96's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Hannover 96 games / 25 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 32% | Draw 36% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 40% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: HDI-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 32% | Draw 36% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Hannover 96 1.18 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.807 / def 0.945 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.856 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.18
1. FC Nürnberg xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at HDI-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Hannover 96 0 - 3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at HDI-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 32% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (1 meetings): Hannover 96 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 0W.
What form are Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (0.81) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
36%
2.79
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.36
1.18
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.18 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Hannover 96 have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 8W 7D 10L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 12W 6D 7L from 25 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Nürnberg are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hannover 96.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hannover 96 have posted 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 4D 3L from 12 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hannover 96 are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.44 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.33 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hannover 96
4
Draws
2
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 4, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hannover 96 3-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 33%, 1. FC Nürnberg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hannover 96) and 58% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%; Hannover 96 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 58% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hannover 96's recent games and 58% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hannover 96.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Hannover 96 0-3 at HDI-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.18 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hannover 96 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 32% | Draw 36% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 48%, 1. FC Nürnberg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.