Hamburger SV 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host 1. FC Heidenheim at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hamburger SV have posted 5W 1D 4L at Volksparkstadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Volksparkstadion this season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Hamburger SV have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hamburger SV, 0 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Hamburger SV winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 58% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 53% | 1. FC Heidenheim 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.27 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.998 / defence 0.896 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.896 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.359. Data: 36 Hamburger SV games / 36 1. FC Heidenheim games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 40% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 31%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 40% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Hamburger SV 1.27 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.998 / def 0.896 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.896 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.09
1. FC Heidenheim xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Hamburger SV 1 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 40% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (2 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.00x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.37
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.36
1.09
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.09 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV come into this having played 36 games, going 17W 11D 8L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (17W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.72 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hamburger SV's home form reads 9W 5D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (6W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.31 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 17W 11D 8L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 17W 7D 12L in their last 36 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.78 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hamburger SV go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
0
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 61%, 1. FC Heidenheim 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hamburger SV) and 44% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 39% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hamburger SV's matches and 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Hamburger SV and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.27 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 40% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 31%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 53%, 1. FC Heidenheim 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.72 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.