FC Schalke 04 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as FC Schalke 04 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Veltins Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 at Veltins Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Schalke 04 2.20 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for FC Schalke 04, 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 0–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 55% versus SC Paderborn 07 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 57% | SC Paderborn 07 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 0.91 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.857 / defence 0.693 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.975 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.327. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Schalke 04's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 FC Schalke 04 games / 47 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | SC Paderborn 07 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — SC Paderborn 07's lower xG of 0.90 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: FC Schalke 04 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Veltins Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG FC Schalke 04 0.91 / SC Paderborn 07 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.857 / def 0.693 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.975 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SC Paderborn 07 xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 November 2025 at Veltins Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
FC Schalke 04 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Veltins Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 34% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (6 meetings): FC Schalke 04 3W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (0.86) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.05
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
1.81
0.90
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 14.7 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 0.90 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 19W 9D 19L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 11L across 47 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 11W 3D 9L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 11W 9D 3L across 23 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 64%.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 24W 12D 11L in their last 47 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.57 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Schalke 04 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
FC Schalke 04
1
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 65%, SC Paderborn 07 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (FC Schalke 04) and 48% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Schalke 04's games and 61% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 48% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Veltins Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 0.91 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.90 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.86 / defence 0.69 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 33%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 57%, SC Paderborn 07 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.