FC Ingolstadt 04 1-1 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Karlsruher SC travel to Audi-Sportpark to take on FC Ingolstadt 04. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04 at Audi-Sportpark this season: 0W 2D 4L from 6 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Karlsruher SC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Karlsruher SC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
FC Ingolstadt 04 trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Karlsruher SC trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Ingolstadt 04 46% and Karlsruher SC 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Ingolstadt 04 69% | Karlsruher SC 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 0.90 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.619 / defence 1.399 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.846 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.348. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Karlsruher SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing FC Ingolstadt 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 13 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 18% | Draw 32% | Karlsruher SC 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 5.56 | Draw 3.12 | Karlsruher SC 2.00. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 50% | Karlsruher SC 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 18% | Draw 32% | Karlsruher SC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 0.90 / Karlsruher SC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.619 / def 1.399 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.846 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Karlsruher SC xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
FC Ingolstadt 04 1 - 1 Karlsruher SC.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 18% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 50% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Ingolstadt 04's attack rating (0.62) and Karlsruher SC's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
18%
5.68
32%
3.11
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.49
1.59
Karlsruher SC xG
5.68
18%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
27.97
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.59 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have picked up 0.38 PPG on a 1W 2D 10L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karlsruher SC's form line: 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Karlsruher SC are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 0.33 PPG from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L).
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 2.31 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC in 77%.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 2D 10L in their last 13 games (0.38 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or Karlsruher SC away?
Karlsruher SC's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.33 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
2
Draws
0
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, Karlsruher SC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2022, when Karlsruher SC 2-2 FC Ingolstadt 04.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Ingolstadt 04 at 50%, Karlsruher SC at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 83% for Karlsruher SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Ingolstadt 04's games and 83% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 83% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Ingolstadt 04 and Karlsruher SC finished level at 1-1 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 0.90 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.59 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.62 / defence 1.40 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 18% | Draw 32% | Karlsruher SC 50%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 69%, Karlsruher SC 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.