1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 meet at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 1L across 9 games at Voith-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Ingolstadt 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 7L across 9 road games this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Heidenheim. A 0.90 PPG lead over FC Ingolstadt 04 (1.50 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Heidenheim lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Ingolstadt 04 — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% versus FC Ingolstadt 04 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 61% | FC Ingolstadt 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.94 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.048 / defence 0.996 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.617 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.333. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.485 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 1. FC Heidenheim games / 18 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Draw 25% | FC Ingolstadt 04 13%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | FC Ingolstadt 04 7.69. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 56% | FC Ingolstadt 04 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Draw 25% | FC Ingolstadt 04 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.94 / FC Ingolstadt 04 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.048 / def 0.996 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.617 / def 1.485 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.82
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 62% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 0 | FC Ingolstadt 04 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC Ingolstadt 04's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — FC Ingolstadt 04's attack (0.62x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
62%
1.62
25%
4.00
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.76
0.82
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
2%
52.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.82 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 9W 3D 6L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Ingolstadt 04's form line: 2W 4D 12L from 18 games, 0.56 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (5W 3D 1L).
On the road, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.78 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 2W 4D 12L in their last 18 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2022, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 56%, FC Ingolstadt 04 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 67% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; FC Ingolstadt 04 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 44% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 67% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out FC Ingolstadt 04 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat FC Ingolstadt 04 2-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.94 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 0.82 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.62 / defence 1.49, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Draw 25% | FC Ingolstadt 04 13%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 61%, FC Ingolstadt 04 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.56. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.