Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 38%, yet in-form Hamburger SV provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hamburger SV to Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 8 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Eintracht Braunschweig — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hamburger SV stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hamburger SV away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hamburger SV — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Hamburger SV have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Eintracht Braunschweig 0–4 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Hamburger SV have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hamburger SV trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 47% versus Hamburger SV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 53% | Hamburger SV 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Eintracht Braunschweig surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Hamburger SV have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 xG and Hamburger SV 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.928 / defence 0.807 | Hamburger SV attack 1.112 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.550. Data: built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 45 games and Hamburger SV's last 45.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 38% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 35%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.64 | Draw 3.67 | Hamburger SV 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hamburger SV (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Eintracht Braunschweig 30% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 38% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 / Hamburger SV 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.928 / def 0.807 | Hamburger SV attack 1.112 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.550 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Hamburger SV xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 8 November 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Eintracht Braunschweig 3 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 38% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.93x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 45 games and Hamburger SV's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.67
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.85
1.39
Hamburger SV xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.39 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 8D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.71 PPG from 45 outings (22W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 9W 5D 8L across their last 22 home games, a 1.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.98 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 60%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 13W 8D 24L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 22W 11D 12L in their last 45 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hamburger SV away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.45 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Eintracht Braunschweig or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Braunschweig have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from July 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 11 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Apr 2024, when Hamburger SV won Eintracht Braunschweig 0-4 Hamburger SV.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2025: Hamburger SV 2-4 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 46%, Hamburger SV 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 64% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 64% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 64% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 73% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat Hamburger SV 3-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 xG and Hamburger SV 1.39 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.93 / defence 0.81 against Hamburger SV attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 38% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 35%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 53%, Hamburger SV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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