1. FC Nürnberg 0-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 0 for Hansa Rostock and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 48% versus Hansa Rostock 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Hansa Rostock 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.919 / defence 0.878 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.735 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.355. Data: 66 1. FC Nürnberg games / 66 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 47% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 25%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Hansa Rostock 4.00. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Hansa Rostock 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 47% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 / Hansa Rostock 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.919 / def 0.878 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.735 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Hansa Rostock xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 47% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 1 | Hansa Rostock 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.92x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.73x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.55
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.20
0.88
Hansa Rostock xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
15.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.88 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 17D 26L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.18 PPG from 66 outings (21W 15D 30L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.18 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 15W 6D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.36 points per game from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.08 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 23W 17D 26L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 21W 15D 30L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Hansa Rostock away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.55 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.36 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 46%, Hansa Rostock 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 52% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 39% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 52% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Nürnberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, as 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.88 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hansa Rostock landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.73 / defence 0.93, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 47% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 25%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 54%, Hansa Rostock 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.30 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.