1. FC Magdeburg 0-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Paderborn 07 (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Magdeburg face SC Paderborn 07.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Avnet-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 4W 0D 6L at Avnet-Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at Avnet-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 1.60 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 0W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 56% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 62% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.09 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.943 / defence 1.344 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.011 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.346. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 1. FC Magdeburg games / 45 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 23% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 55%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 1.82. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Magdeburg 20% | SC Paderborn 07 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 23% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.09 / SC Paderborn 07 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.943 / def 1.344 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.011 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.83
SC Paderborn 07 xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 23% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 4 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.01x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
23%
4.44
23%
4.37
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.92
1.83
SC Paderborn 07 xG
4.44
23%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
4%
27.61
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.83 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 16W 12D 17L from 45 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 10L across 45 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Magdeburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 10W 9D 3L across 22 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.67 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 67%.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 23W 12D 10L in their last 45 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.14 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
1. FC Magdeburg
4
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 46%, SC Paderborn 07 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 64% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-1 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.09 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.34 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 23% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 55%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 62%, SC Paderborn 07 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.