1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Energie Cottbus travel to Avnet-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 4W 1D 5L at Avnet-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Avnet-Arena this season.
Energie Cottbus — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Energie Cottbus trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 33% versus Energie Cottbus 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 67% | Energie Cottbus 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.94 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.943 / defence 1.165 | Energie Cottbus attack 0.700 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.533. Energie Cottbus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 1. FC Magdeburg games / 3 Energie Cottbus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 54% | Draw 22% | Energie Cottbus 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Energie Cottbus 4.17. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Energie Cottbus 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 54% | Draw 22% | Energie Cottbus 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.94 / Energie Cottbus 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.943 / def 1.165 | Energie Cottbus attack 0.700 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Energie Cottbus xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Avnet-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 54% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Energie Cottbus (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.67 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 0.94x the league average against Energie Cottbus's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Energie Cottbus's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
54%
1.87
22%
4.54
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.19
1.25
Energie Cottbus xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
4%
28.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.25 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Energie Cottbus sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Energie Cottbus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 2.00 scored and 2.67 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus in 67%.
Defensively: 1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or Energie Cottbus been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Energie Cottbus in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 33%, Energie Cottbus 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 100% for Energie Cottbus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Energie Cottbus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Energie Cottbus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 67% of Energie Cottbus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 100% of Energie Cottbus's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Energie Cottbus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.