Valenciennes 1-4 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Valenciennes welcome Auxerre to Stade du Hainaut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Valenciennes haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Valenciennes's home record at Stade du Hainaut: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Auxerre's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Valenciennes) versus 1.20 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Valenciennes, 2 for Auxerre and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 50% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 37% | Auxerre 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.57 xG and Auxerre 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.985 / defence 1.049 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.143. Data: 38 Valenciennes games / 0 Auxerre games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 50% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 25%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Auxerre 4.00. Valenciennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valenciennes as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valenciennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 60% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 50% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Valenciennes 1.57 / Auxerre 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.985 / def 1.049 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Auxerre xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Auxerre kick off?
Valenciennes vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Valenciennes 1 - 4 Auxerre.
Where is Valenciennes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Auxerre part of?
Valenciennes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 50% chance of winning, Auxerre a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valenciennes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Valenciennes 0W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Valenciennes and Auxerre in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (0.98) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.96
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.59
1.02
Auxerre xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
5%
19.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.02 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valenciennes's recent record stands at 10W 15D 13L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. Valenciennes haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 19L across 38 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. Auxerre haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valenciennes on 1.18 PPG, Auxerre on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valenciennes have managed 6W 11D 2L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 3W 4D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valenciennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valenciennes are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 0.92 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Pre-Season
Auxerre
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 10W 15D 13L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 8W 11D 19L in their last 38 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Auxerre away?
Valenciennes's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.53 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Auxerre won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valenciennes's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valenciennes
1
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 0, Auxerre have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Auxerre 0-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 63%, Auxerre 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Valenciennes) and 53% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Auxerre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Valenciennes's games and 58% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valenciennes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Valenciennes's recent games and 53% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Valenciennes 1-4 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.57 xG and Auxerre 1.02 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 50% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 25%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 37%, Auxerre 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.18 PPG, Auxerre 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.